The companies that are reporting earnings on 01/30/2024

$GOOGL - Google is going to report earnings tomorrow after the market close.

Estimated EPS: $1.60 (+52.34% YoY) Estimated Revenue: $85.27B (+12.13% YoY) 5 years FCF CAGR is +30.05% 5 years Revenue CAGR is +18.86% 5 years EPS CAGR is +18.93% FCF margin: 26.14% Debt/equity: 0.11 ROIC: 28.57% WAAC: 11.57% ROIC > WAAC. It's a great company to invest in.

$MSFT -Microsoft will report its earnings tomorrow after the market close. EPS estimates: $2.77 (+19.34% YoY) Revenue Estimates: $61.13B (+15.89% YoY) 5 years FCF CAGR is +11.24% 5 years Revenue CAGR is +12.34% 5 years EPS CAGR is +15.32% FCF margin: 28.96% Debt/equity: 0.48 ROIC: 27.24% WAAC: 10.06% ROIC > WAAC. Another great company to invest in.

$SBUX - Starbucks is going to report its earnings tomorrow:

Estimated EPS: $0.939 (+25.13% YoY)

Estimated Revenue: $9.63B (+10.48% YoY)

$AMD - Advanced Micro Devices is going to report its earnings tomorrow.

Estimated EPS: $0.77 (+11.60% YoY)

Estimated Revenue: $6.14B (+9.64% YoY)

$MDLZ - Mondelez will report its earnings tomorrow after the market close.

Estimated EPS: $0.774 (+6.05% YoY)

Estimated Revenue: $9.30B (+6.9% YoY)

$PFE - Pfizer is going to report its earnings tomorrow

Estimated EPS: $-0.183 vs. $1.14 last year.

Estimated Revenue: $14.40B (-40.73% YoY)

Not looking good.

$DHR - Danaher Corp. is going to report earnings

Estimated EPS: $1.90 (-33.86% YoY)

Estimated Revenue: $6B (-28.31% YoY)

$UPS - UPS Store is going to report its earnings tomorrow.

Estimated EPS: $2.46 (-32.04% YoY)

Estimated Revenue: $25.41B (-6% YoY)

Portfolio Update - March 2020

Portfolio Update - March 2020

Today I am going to share my portfolio at the end of March 2020. This month we entered the bear market and my portfolio nose dived and I had to sell all of my remaining position of Delta Airlines (DAL) and also I have lowered my positions in the British Petroleum (BP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) to raise some cash to buy some great stocks those I was waiting for an entry point for quite a long time. In February, I have sold all of my positions in Bank of America (BAC) at $34.5, 3/4 th of my JP Morgan (JPM) at $103, and Delta (DAL) at $46. I invested in DAL for a long time but I have decided to seel all because it will take them years to recover and the dividend is not going to come soon. because I am a dividend growth investor so I don't need to be invested for long in this stock. I was so lucky that I made a quick decision to sell most of my positions at $46. I sold my last few positions at $25. I raised a lot of cash in February by selling the stocks and I was holding around 10% cash in my brokerage account. I was so much active in the market around mid March and I think I made some great investment for the longer term. With those money I have opened my position in Starbux (SBUX) at $52, Disney (DIS) at $92, Cater Pillar (CAT) at $97, Realty Income (O) at $47, Store Capital (STOR), Duke Energy (DUK) at $74, and Southern Co (SO) at $44 in March. I have also added McDonald's (MCD) at $130, Cisco (CSCO) at $37, Leggett & Platt (LEG) at $23, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at $123, Emerson (EMR) at $46, Honeywell at $117, 3M (MMM) at $138, PPL at $26, and At&t (T) at $27. At the end of this blog you will see my overall portfolio. Below is the table that shows my portfolio distribution:

The same table is shown as a pie chart. I have invested in Apple (AAPL) in 2018 December and since then it sky rocketed. I am adding any more AAPL as I am holding more than 10% in my portfolio. I am also not going to invest in MMM anymore. I will add more positions in JNJ, HD, and MCD if I get them cheap. Microsoft(MSFT) is looking expensive right now. I will also add more DIS, CAT, and HON. I am also keeping an eye on O, STOR, DUK, and SO stocks.

The sector distribution of my portfolio is shown in the following pie chart. The sectors are based on Yahoo Finance. Currently, my highest position is in the health sector with 20% of my portfolio. I just invested in JNJ this month but the increase is because I have lowered my positions significantly in the financial and the energy sector. My second highest sector is the technology sector with 18%. The technology performed better in March and I have added more CSCO stocks. 

I always update my transaction in the tipranks website and the figure below compares my portfolio performance against the S&P 500. In most of the cases my portfolio beat the market.

My performance as a portfolio manager is also not bad. At then end of March I was ranked 1530 out of 24989 managers which is at the top 6%. My portfolio has gained 26.05% since I started to invest since 2017 August. Last month my gain was 69%. Last months bear market brought my gain down to 26%. My sharpe ratio is 0.81 while the average tiprank managers is -0.27.

My 12 month returns (TTM) is -6.07% while the YTD return is -19.5%. There may be more down turn in my portfolio but I am investing for long term so I should not be worried about this roller-coaster type movement.

The meter below shows my projected income in terms of dividends. On 31st March 2020, my projected income through dividends were $1118.99. It dropped from my last month because I have sold some high yield oil shares and holding cash. This income may drop more because some of the companies may cut their dividends.

My current yield on cost (YOC) is 3.84% while my current portfolio yield 3.54%. Because I am investing in dividend growth stocks so my YOC will continue to grow with time while the current yield depends with the market volatility. The yield will go up when the market is down and the vice versa.

The following figure shows the comparison of my current yield and YOC with time. Because the market dropped a lot, that's why the current yield is going up. This signals a buying opportunity in the market. For the longer term, if I keep investing in dividend growth stocks, my YOC will keep growing with time.

The following chart shows my growth in projected annual income with time. It is slowly but steadily increasing and this month I have received my highest earning so far through dividends.

The table below summarizes the dividends that I received in March 2020. This month I have received $144.16. My highest paying dividend paying stock for this part of the quarter was BP. Then MMM, HD, JNJ, XOM, and PFE. 

The following table shows the detailed performances of my portfolio. The current prices are based on March 31st, 2020. In the chart, I have shared my current positions, annual income through dividends, total received dividends from each companies so far, cost basis, YOC, current yield, and finally the total gain or loss including the dividend income. The top 4 stocks that I gained the most so far is MSFT 91%, MA 64%, PG 55%, and AAPL 54%. Currently, I am in the downside in all the oil stocks. I am more than 30% down in XOM, BP, and CVX.

My way of finding the buying opportunity of a stock during the Bear market

Finding the entry point of buying stock during the Bear market

The market is at the bear market as it fell more than 30% in March. I have created a list that contains all of my stocks in my portfolio and some other stocks which are on my watch list for quite a long time. I have made a price comparison chart of all those stocks which compares how much the price drops from their 52 weeks high. I have also added each stock PE ratio and Current yield although for many of them the PE and current yield will change significantly. I have also calculated the price of each stock at 20%, 30%, and 50% down from their highest price. The 52 weeks high has been extracted from google finance and the PE and current yield are from yahoo finance. The energy sector got hit the most with an average of around -60% from their recent highs. The next sector that got hurt is the financial sector which is down with an average of around -30%. The best sector is so far is the consumer defensive sectors. The table below shows the energy sector performance

Energy Sector:

All the major energy stocks dropped more than 50% except Chevron but very close to 50%. The prices are really attractive but in this situation, it's better to stay away from any energy stocks. In my portfolio, I am holding BP, CVX, and XOM. I am not selling them and holding them for the longer term.

REIT Sector:

The REIT sector was also down big until the recent rally recovered from the low prices. I have started my position in realty income (O) @40.5. I was watching the stock for a long time but the price was really high just a few months ago. I will add more O if the price drops below $40 which will be more than 50% down from its 52 weeks high.

Financial Sector:

The financial sector is also down big. I was so lucky to sell all of my BAC stocks in mid-february @$34.5. I took a good amount of profit from BAC. I am not planning to add any bank stocks now. Although their PE is very low, I am expecting more than 50% drop in JPM and BAC. Their earnings will drop for sure and the PE will increase. I will add JPM if it drops below $60 and BAC below $12.

Industrial Sector:

I was very active to buy stocks in this sector in mid-March. I have added CAT, EMR, HON, and MMM stocks while sold 75% of my DAL position in February @$49.5. The prices were very attractive and I am investing in those stocks for a longer-term. Emmerson (EMR) and 3M (MMM) are the dividend kings who are increasing their dividends for more than 60 years. I have added enough MMM, now I will gradually increase my position in CAT and HON in the next few weeks.

Consumer Cyclical:

This is another sector that I love to invest a lot. GM and LEG are down almost 50%. LEG is a dividend aristocrat. It raised its dividends for the last 47 years. I have added a few LEG @$25.5. I have also added MCD and SBUX in mid-march @$128.66 and @$52.5 respectively. I will add more SBUX if the price drops below $50. I am also watching HD. I will add them @$140. I am also watching Nike for a long time but unfortunately, the stock is always overvalued. I will look for an entry @$52.

Consumer Defensive:

This is the best performing sector so far in the market. Still, I don't see any buying opportunity in this sector as their PE ratio is still high. I may add PEP if the price drops below $100 and KO below $33.

Communication:

In this sector, two of my favorite stock is At&t(T) and Disney (DIS). Disney was down big before the recent rally. I have added a few DIS stocks @$82.5. I will add more DIS if it drops below $78. I have also added T in mid-March when the price dropped below $27.

Healthcare Sector:

In the healthcare sector, I already own too many stocks of ABBV and BMY. The only stock I am adding in this sector is JNJ. recently I have added JNJ @122. I will slowly add more JNJ if the price drops even more.

Technology Sector:

I own AAPL, MSFT, CSCO, and TXN in my portfolio. I am adding any AAPL and MSFT as their PE is still high. I will add more CSCO if the price drops below $30.

Utility Sector:

In this sector, I own D and PPL. I was watching SO and DUK for some time. Recently I have added SO @ $44.5 and DUK @ $70.5. I will add more SO and DUK if the price drops around 40% from their highs.